Трудно переоценить значение Арктики как региона, в котором сосредоточено около четверти залежей углеводородов, в особенности для следующих стран: Канады, Дании (Гренландии), Финляндии, Исландии, Норвегии, Российской Федерации, Швеции и США (Аляски). Кроме того, климатические и погодные изменения в Арктике позволяют шире использовать возможности Северного морского пути вдоль побережья России, что может принести значительную экономию времени и материальных средств, поскольку сокращает протяженность маршрута следования, например, из Роттердама до Йокогамы на 12 000 км. и 10-15 дней по сравнению с традиционным маршрутом через Суэцкий канал. Однако плавание по Северному морскому пути является довольно опасным предприятием, так что страховщики устанавливают повышенные премии и увеличивают франшизу. Таким образом, облегчение ледовой обстановки в Арктике предоставляет больше возможностей для эксплуатации ее богатых минеральных ресурсов и для уменьшения расходов по трансконтинентальным перевозкам углеводородов между Европой и Азией, но в краткосрочной перспективе значительные операционные риски, связанные с освоением Арктики, будут серьезно влиять на оценку андеррайтерами страховых рисков.
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As politicians across the globe grapple with the impact global warming is havingon our environment, an unprecedented increase in temperatures in the Arctic has transformed the region, attracting significant economic investment from oil majors seeking to extract its vast hydrocarbon reserves. With receding ice also opening up shipping lanes previously considered impassable, the opportunity to shorten the time it takes to carry goods between Europe and Asia is now of significant interest to shipowners and cargo interests alike.
However, despite the Arctic’s physical transformation, considerable risks remain for companies operating in the High North which, in turn, provide a significant challenge for underwriters in successfully pricing and reserving such risks.
Arctic transformation
Comprised of a large ocean area and land areas of eight countries – Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway (Svalbard), Russia, Sweden and the US (Alaska) – the Arctic, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS), may hold up to 25% of the world’s remaining oil and natural gas resources.
Whilst the Arctic naturally extends its ice coverage every northern winter and recedes each northern summer, satellite measurements show an acceleration in the rate of overall loss of ice. The alarming rate of reduction in the floating ice cap means that the area of the Arctic Ocean covered by ice is now half the size from when satellite monitoring first began in the 1970s. The US National Snow and Ice Data Centre now forecast that by 2030 the Arctic will be completely free of ice during summer months.
Commercial opportunities
Historically, the Arctic’s thick layers of multi-year ice coupled with adverse weather conditions provided a significant deterrent to commercial development. The enormous retraction of sea ice over the last decade has, however, eroded the Arctic’s defences and the oil and gas and shipping industries are now poised to reap the benefits from the opportunities presented.
With global demand for oil projected to reach 104 million barrels per day by 2030 and with total production decreasing in the North Sea as reserves are slowly exhausted, it is thought that up to USD 100 billion could be invested by oil and gas majors in the Arctic within the next decade.
Ultimately, the commercial feasibility of the Arctic will largely depend on whether future market prices for oil and gas support the significant investment required to enable drilling in conditions where production costs will be higher than elsewhere. However, with the Russian government firmly supporting the extraction of the hydrocarbons locked under its seabed it is anticipated that significant investment will be provided to develop the infrastructure necessary to support exploration and production. Russia’s Energy Minister Aleksander Novak anticipates that 25-30% of Russia’s crude oil production would be from offshore reserves by 2030 and
production is already underway at Gazprom’s Prirazlomnaya oil platform in the Pechora Sea, south of Novaya Zemla, the first commercial off-shore oil development in the Arctic.
Supporting the oil and gas industry, the commercial development of the Arctic will also present opportunities for the shipping sector and, in particular, for specific purpose offshore support vessels to service platforms and for tankers to move the extracted product to market.
Significantly, the reduction in sea ice may also have a wider impact on the shipping industry with the passage running along Russia’s coastline, a conduit between the
Atlantic and Pacific oceans, now passable during summer months. The shipping lane from Murmansk to the Bering Strait, known as the Northern Sea Route (NSR), has the potential to significantly reduce sailing time and, in turn fuel costs, for journeys between Europe and Asia. According to Russia’s Transportation Ministry, a voyage from Rotterdam, Netherlands to Yokohama, Japan, via the NSR is around 12,000 kilometers shorter than the usual route through the Suez Canal, cutting transit time by 10-15 days and, significantly, fuel costs. 71 vessels transited the NSR in 2013, a 50% increase from the number of vessels that used the passage in 2012, and the Polar Research Institute in China estimates that by 2020 between 5-15% of China’s trade will be shipped along the NSR.
Arctic risks
Whilst receding ice has increased the accessibility of the Arctic Ocean for commercial development it has not, however, eliminated the considerable risks involved when operating in sub-zero temperatures.
With icebergs and growlers still an ever-present threat even during the summer months, the current lack of coastline infrastructure accompanied by the Arctic’s geographical remoteness have led to the insurance market querying whether an oil spill could be dealt with in sufficient time to limit significant damage. Although the Arctic Council is now taking active steps to ensure the necessary equipment and manpower is in place, it remains the case that cleaning up oil in broken sea ice amplifies the threat of damage and, with oil taking considerably longer in icy conditions to break down, there are logistical complications to undertaking an effective clean-up which are likely to make operations significantly more expensive.
Despite increases in shipping activity through the NSR, insurers are not yet convinced that receding ice has reduced the risk of transiting icy waters. As ice has historically prohibited detailed charts from being drawn up, vessels have, until now, relied heavily on experienced crews.
However, sunshine filled polar days and nights can disrupt sleep patterns, increasing human error, and such reliance therefore remains dangerous.
As salvage is almost impossible under Arctic conditions, insurers are well aware that the likely result of a collision will be an actual total loss. Even for vessels whose hulls are built to withstand such forces, navigating in ice is a huge exposure. This is reflected in the additional premium shipowners are liable to pay where their vessels trade in Arctic waters – excluded under Institute warranties limits.
Hull and Machinery underwriters confirmed they would not normally consider insuring a vessel transiting the NSR unless it was of ice-class and assisted by ice-breakers.
Additionally, conditions within the policy may stipulate the vessel can only sail within certain time frames and in specific weather conditions. Although vessels that regularly trade in Arctic waters will elect to pay a premium for the entire season, one off journeys through the NSR will incur high premiums. Further, shipowners can anticipate an increase in their policy deductible, which may double.
A sea change ahead?
With the polar icecap continuing to recede, greater economic opportunities will be available along the route both for oil and gas majors looking to exploit the Arctic’s rich mineral resources and for shipowners seeking to reduce costs for transcontinental voyages. Although the commercial development of the region in the short term will largely be influenced by the feasibility of extracting the oil and gas locked under its seabed, there remain substantial operational risks which will, ultimately, significantly influence underwriters when pricing the risk of insuring Arctic operations.
Авторы: James Burns, Tom Gorrard-Smith
Источник: http://www.clydeco.com/uploads/Files/Publications/2014/CC006130_Icy_frontier_provides_challenges.pdf